A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
